Last weeks predictions were relatively dreadful from me, I did warn everyone, listening to me would end with us all being broke. I still expected a better showing than I put out, frankly I am ashamed. No matter, only way to overcome that is to bounce back this week. I may be leaving the scores out of my predictions this week; I have never been good at that part. Even though I did predict Bournemouth to get slapped around and Tottenham to draw Chelsea, the scores were all wrong. Nevertheless, let us look ahead to week three of matches.
Tottenham (1-1-0) vs Wolverhampton (0-1-1)
What a masterclass by Conte over the weekend. Spurs putting Chelsea in the mud with their strategically planned (non) fouls. That is not something that every manager can teach. The precise way to foul your opponent, without fouling your opponent. While all the Chelsea staff and supporters are up in arms protesting, what do Spurs do, steal a point at the bridge. Considering how dreadful the first half was for them, walking out with a point is nothing short of a miracle. I do not see them having as hard a time against Wolves. Coming off a draw with Fulham it is clear this Wolves side is still figuring things out. The back four for starters is something to get used to, as well as not using Jimenez up the top while he is injured. Honestly, I think he has slowly fallen off over the last few years. He came on the scene flying their first season, but he has impressed me less and less as the years go on. They do have Guedes now, who should be one to watch. No seriously look at him, dude is kind of attractive, kind of jealous. He is not too bad a football either. Wolves want more of the ball this year, Tottenham are fine playing without the ball. It could be a track meet, with Tottenham running away with this unless Wolves can shut down the counter. Seems like a match for Son to open his account for the season. Tottenham to win this one.
Crystal Palace (0-1-1) vs Aston Villa (1-0-1)
Palace starting the season against Arsenal and Liverpool is not want you want to see if you are a fan. I will say walking out of those two matches with a point, I would take that any day of the week. Arguably they should have ended with three from Liverpool but considering the chances they gave up in the first half, a draw was fair. On the other hand, Villa have played Bournemouth and Everton collecting three points, and losing Carlos for most of the year in the process. It may be controversial, but I am tempted to say Palace has had the better start to the year, I also think they have the better manager. A lot will be made clear based on who Stevie G picks in his starting lineup this week, pretty much if Buendia is on the bench and Coutinho is starting we can confirm that they are having a secret love affair. Or you know they played together, and Stevie cannot put aside his bias. I think my revelation sounds more likely. I am not putting much thought into the stats here considering the opponents that they both faced. All I do know is that going to Selhurst Park is a nightmare for any club. In addition to that, Eze looks like he has rebounded from his achilles injury finally, and Doucoure seems to be slowly filling the Gallagher sized hole in the midfield. Perhaps I would be more worried about Villa in this one, if they had a more quality striker. Palace have had to play a higher level of opponent and are finally all back together again. Palace win their first of the season.
Everton (0-0-2) vs Nottingham (1-0-1)
Relegation scrap three weeks into the season?? Maybe. I think it is more than fair to say both clubs are favorites to go down this season. If you think just because Forest is buying every player to ever exist, they are safe, I ask you to look at Fulham and Villa. Sure, Villa stayed up, shout out to the goal line technology for being broken at Sheffield Utd. When you think about it, that goal not counting is the reason Man City ended up paying one hundred million for Jack Grealish, so in a way maybe we should be grateful. If Villa went down, they sell Jack for cheaper, probably to Tottenham or Man Utd. Instead, they stay up Jack’s value grows, City overpay the English tax, and now must sell all their backup players. I am not sure all the events even connect but for arguments sakes they do. Not sure how we got here considering Villa is not playing in this game, anyways, Everton and Forest. They will both probably scrap at the bottom of the table. Sure, Everton have made some signings, but they lost a key in Richarlison. Coady can maybe hold down the back, and Onana seems like he may be a star to watch, not sure it is enough though. Offensively through two weeks they have not looked up for it. Their only goal so far coming from an own goal. Rumors right now Chelsea want to buy Gordon for forty million, uh yeah take that fee. Sure, he has been decent, but it is not like he is lighting up the league. If Chelsea wants to hand you a check for that much to have a player flopping to the turf every time the wind changes direction, cash that check. Use that money and go buy a backup striker. You are going to need it against Forest. They came out flying against West Ham but second half they sat back and prayed for lady luck to give them everything she had, and she did. Without a striker I do not see them breaking down the Forest backline. If Forest scores the first goal here, they are winning it, I do not see a scenario where Everton score at all. Forest wins this one.
Fulham (0-2-0) vs Brentford (1-1-0)
This is an interesting one, both clubs lit it up for their first home match of the season. The difference being, Fulham drew Liverpool, whereas Brentford dismantled a bottom half of the table squad. Hard to compare the two considering the competition is levels apart. Fulham and Mitrovic looked poised to run right through Wolves last week and they were far from being able to do that. It is hard to predict early in the season what is going to happen with new clubs. They are back home this week so maybe they run through Brentford, but injuries are already plaguing them, and they have not brought in replacements yet. Their depth is concerning even this early in the season. On the other side, Brentford has done a lot to bring in quality depth players this year, and DaSilva is on pace to score 38 goals from the midfield. I am not even sure how you set tactics to stop that, answer, you don’t. Neither club seems to like possession very much, both averaging less than 40% a match. The question comes down to, who takes the initiative, and who handles the counter better? Fulham did not look ready to stop the counter last week, Wolves just missed their chances, I do not expect the same from Brentford. Fulham take possession, Brentford takes the points. Brentford to win.
Leicester City (0-1-1) vs Southampton (0-1-1)
GOALS. If this match is not filled with goals than something has gone completely wrong. Both clubs have allowed six goals in their first two matches. Tied for the most, along with Man Utd. Neither club can defend very well, and both seem to be able to find the back of the net relatively well. Leicester have scored four goals so far, and Southampton have scored three. I am not sure what Leicester’s plan this season is, but they just need to make it through the window at this point, with their club intact. Right now: Fofana, Maddison, and Tielemans, are all linked with moves away. Find a way to keep those players, and maybe sign a winger, then from there find a way to get Schmeichel back. As much as I make fun of Southampton at least we know they are trying to take young players and build them up to be quality parts of the club. Lavia, Mara, and Aribo are all ones that I want to keep an eye on this year. I know Aribo is a little older, but he is by no means ancient, and he looked like he brought the most to the table last week off the bench. I thought they were screwed at the striker position, but if Mara comes in and plays like he did last week, they will be fine. The pass he played in behind to KWP on that second goal, it made me feel things that I have never felt. I am not sure if there is a word to describe being attracted to a pass, but let’s just say that pass was CLASS. I am not confident in any of the three possible results, part of me just wants to say one club will win this match, or it will end in a draw. However, I owe you more than that. Vardy opens his account for the year, but the defense is too poor to keep a lead. Sometimes I forget its an option, this ends in a Draw.
Bournemouth (1-0-1) vs Arsenal (2-0-0)
Bournemouth did, exactly what I thought they would do, to be fair Arsenal pretty much did too. It is not fair to base Bournemouth’s season on the performance against City, but it is clear what their plan is week to week. Sit in deep, try to counter. So innovative, we have never seen that one before... Arsenal just tore apart Leicester’s defense, so it does not look good for Bournemouth this week either. I am leaning towards the same situation as last week for this one. If Bournemouth can hold out for 15-20 min this will be a one goal game, if not than Arsenal can run it up on them. Under Arteta, Arsenal has won 55% of their matches when they have more than 50% possession, that number drops to 50% when they have more than 60% possession. Obviously, you expect the club with more possession to win, but when clubs like Bournemouth sit in with so many men it becomes difficult to score. Someone like Jesus, I think, will make a big difference here in unlocking that back line. I think it will be similar to last week, Arsenal wins here.
Leeds United (1-1-0) vs Chelsea (1-1-0)
I feel like it must be mentioned right off the bat, Leeds United States are above Chelsea going into this match, in the table. Talk about a massive club. Both clubs snuck out wins in their first matches of the year, and both clubs blew leads to end in draws in their second match. Chelsea clearly do not have what it takes to hang with the tough clubs. You are going to let them foul you and pull your hair? All I am saying is that if this was a playground fight you would be getting bullied for, well, getting bullied. Embrace the chaos next time, they pull your hair, you pants them in the box. They foul you; you punch their keeper while no one is looking. Just be better, such a pathetic response to what was happening. Jesse Marsch has a small scrap with Bruno Lage in week one, then it was Tuchel versus Conte in week two. It was almost fate they meet week three for another confrontation, unfortunately Tuchel will have to do his yelling from the press box since he decided to get a red card trying to alpha Conte in a handshake. I have no idea what to expect from this one in terms of the play itself. Possession is pretty much what you would expect, Leeds averaging 49% and Chelsea averaging 63%. They do average the same number of shots on target with 4.5 each. Leeds makes the most of their possession while Chelsea seems to hold the ball without creating. That is nothing new though. I think defense will make the difference here, because finishing is not in either of these squad’s blood. One backline is much better than the other, Chelsea win.
West Ham United (0-0-2) vs Brighton (1-1-0)
Two ends of the spectrum here in terms of starts to the season. Everyone expected Brighton to be awful, losing Bissouma and Cucurella. The expectation was that West Ham would pick up where they left off last season. Well, Brighton have let Moises Caicedo loose on the league (if you listened to the podcast last year you know he was quality, because I said he was, constantly), and you would not even know they lost Cucurella, yet. West Ham went out, got a stronger and deeper side, and to show for that they got smacked around by City, and could not buy a goal against Forest. Unfortunately for them it does not get any easier against Brighton. I am not sure how they found the players that they have but the recruitment at Brighton has been immense. If you watched the Newcastle match against them last week, you saw them bring on Mitoma, a Japanese international, whom they bought last year. Talk about instant impact, he looked fantastic down the left side. I am just happy Newcastle took Dan Ashworth from them, hopefully we start to grab some of these hidden gems to pair with our expensive ones. Anyways, to me it is a matter of when, not if, West Ham will get back to winning ways. They are in the process of completing a move for Kehrer from PSG. Considering Aguerd is injured, and Diop left for Fulham, their center back situation was looking grim. The difference is going to be finishing, also Brighton wants the ball, West Ham play best on the counter. Seems like a recipe for disaster for Brighton unfortunately. Assuming West Ham can deal with the press from Brighton I do not see them struggling here. West Ham win this one.
Newcastle United (1-1-0) vs Manchester City (2-0-0)
I am not even sure there is much to say about City at this point. Right now, they are flying, unless they get an injury, I do not expect that to stop. I will say these are the only two clubs that have not allowed a goal yet this year. Really the only consolation I have as a Newcastle fan going into this match. I have no idea how Newcastle intends to setup for this one. What I do know is that if it is Mahrez vs Burn on the left side, we have already lost this match. It is a good thing our defense was a target in the transfer window, because it made a difference in the match against Brighton. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said about our attack. I just hope Wilson is ready to get very little service and run his balls off when he gets the chance. It is wishful thinking, but maybe ASM will even make the right decision on the ball once or twice this week, wishful, I know. As I said there is not much to say about City, dominated both West Ham and Bournemouth. I expected nothing from Bournemouth, but West Ham could have at least put up a little fight. I think England, and all Premier League fans as a whole, need to get behind Newcastle for this one. Someone needs to kick City’s confidence a bit before the season gets rolling. After the match against Forest, I was feeling good about Newcastle. After Brighton, I feel terrible. Man City win.
Manchester United (0-0-2) vs Liverpool (0-2-0)
In my eyes the only consolation Man Utd fans have is that Liverpool is having a dreadful start to the season as well. Also, if they win this match, they are above them in the table. Neither of these clubs can be happy with what his going on. The score line of United’s match against Brentford is catching all the headlines, but the reality is Liverpool drawing, Palace and Fulham, is also a tough look, especially for a side poised to win the league. Also, Darwin pulling off his best Zidane does not help the situation. I do find it humorous that most fans online sit around waiting to make fun of the other club for something that happens, yet both are terrible right now. Here is an idea, what if both fans sit there quietly and wallow in their own self-pity instead of pointing out each other’s disgusting performances. Neither of you have won a match and combined have a -5 goal difference. You are allowed to just shut up. Honestly, no clue how this one goes. I almost want to wait to see the lineup before I say anything. I thought Liverpool would walk over Palace, then I saw the lineups and realized they were going to struggle. If United try to play from the back again they will lose. On the other hand, Liverpool has something like ten injuries right now, and no Nunez. Seems fitting both clubs continue to stumble out of the gates at this rate. Big game energy means, Draw.
I would say I will try to make these shorter, but with ten matches to go over it is hard to. I try my best to keep each individual one an appropriate length at least. Hopefully not predicting the score itself brings me some luck. Now get out there, do not take any of my advice, and bet some parlays. $5 on all my predictions guarantees you will lose $5 this weekend, but the thrill is worth the price.
Until next time. - SO
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